Cem Özdemir wins Baden-Württemberg: why Manuel Hagel lost
Cem Özdemir’s election victory: Reza Mehman and his guest analyse election night in Baden-Württemberg, the smear-campaign debate and the CDU’s future.
This is the complete English translation of the original article and edited German transcript. It retains the original speaker labels, repeated passages and names as transcribed, including “Reichenbach”, “Daniel Bayaz” and “Strobel”. The assessments reflect the conversation at the time.
Discussing Cem Özdemir’s election victory
Cem Özdemir’s election victory in Baden-Württemberg has shaken Germany’s political landscape. In this episode, Reza Mehman and his guest analyse a historic election night: how did a complete underdog beat the CDU, which had led the polls by a wide margin for over a year? Was it a smear campaign by the Greens, or did Manuel Hagel make decisive strategic mistakes in the final stretch? The conversation examines the dynamics behind the result, the CDU’s future under Hagel, the question of whether participation in government could normalise the AfD, and the role of personalities in modern party politics.
Summary
One-sentence version: Reza Mehman and his guest analyse how Cem Özdemir won the Baden-Württemberg election as an underdog, and why Manuel Hagel and the CDU lost despite years of leading the polls.
Three-sentence version: Cem Özdemir’s election victory in Baden-Württemberg seemed unthinkable only weeks earlier, yet he achieved it as a complete underdog. Reza and his guest discuss whether a Green smear campaign or the CDU’s strategic mistakes proved decisive. The conversation also raises deeper questions about the CDU’s future, normalising the AfD and the importance of personalities in party politics.
Five-sentence version: Cem Özdemir will become minister-president of Baden-Württemberg, an outcome that seemed completely unthinkable only weeks earlier. Reza Mehman and his guest discuss whether a Green smear campaign or strategic mistakes by Manuel Hagel and the CDU tipped the balance. They analyse how the timing of an incident involving a member of the Bundestag may have influenced the election, and how Hagel made mistakes with videos and communication in the final stretch. The discussion broadens into fundamental questions: could governing normalise the AfD, just as the Greens once moved from pacifism to pragmatic politics? And what role do personalities such as Özdemir, Kretschmann and Lindner play in a party’s success or failure?
Context: who, what and why
Who is speaking: Reza Mehman is a podcaster and commentator on German and Iranian politics. In this episode, he speaks with a guest about election night in Baden-Württemberg.
What it is about: The Baden-Württemberg state election ended with a surprising victory for Cem Özdemir of the Greens over Manuel Hagel of the CDU. The discussion analyses the reasons, the smear-campaign debate and the political consequences.
Why it matters: The result shows how quickly political majorities can shift and the role that personalities, communication and timing play in modern campaigns. The debate over normalising the AfD matters to society as a whole.
Three key questions in this episode:
- Was Hagel’s defeat the result of a smear campaign or his own mistakes?
- How can the CDU become strong again in opposition under Hagel?
- Could participation in government normalise the AfD?
Contents
- Introduction — An overview of the historic election night in Baden-Württemberg
- Summary — A concise summary in three versions
- Context — Who is speaking, what it is about and why it matters
- Topics and context — Political and social themes
- Key points — The episode’s main statements at a glance
- Frequently asked questions — Answers to the main questions
- Highlighted quotes — Standout statements from the episode
- The complete conversation — The edited podcast transcript
- Keywords — Relevant search terms
- Names and terms — Important people and terms in the episode
- Passage for quotation — A ready-to-use text
Topics and context
1. Cem Özdemir’s underdog triumph
How a candidate who seemed to have no chance only weeks earlier won the election and is set to become minister-president.
Keywords: Cem Özdemir, minister-president, underdog, Baden-Württemberg
2. A smear campaign or the CDU’s own mistakes?
The debate over whether the timing of the incident involving a Bundestag member was a targeted campaign, or whether Hagel himself made mistakes.
Keywords: smear campaign, Manuel Hagel, CDU, election campaign
3. The CDU’s future and Manuel Hagel’s role
Hagel is only 37 and still has a political future. The question is which office will give him the visibility he needs.
Keywords: Manuel Hagel, CDU opposition, state politics, future
4. Normalising the AfD through participation in government
A provocative proposition: could the AfD undergo the same normalisation process through governing that the Greens once did?
Keywords: AfD, normalisation, participation in government, history of the Greens
5. Personality as a key factor in party politics
Whether Özdemir, Kretschmann, Lindner or Reichenbach: if the leading figure does not work, the party becomes irrelevant.
Keywords: personality, party politics, social media, election campaign
Key points from the conversation
- Cem Özdemir was a complete underdog, and his victory seemed unthinkable only weeks earlier.
- The CDU lost in the final stretch despite years of leading the polls.
- The timing of the incident involving the Bundestag member was at least “odd”; whether it was a smear campaign remains unclear.
- Manuel Hagel made mistakes in the final stretch, particularly with certain videos and his communication.
- Hagel is only 37 and still has a political future if he secures the right office.
- Cem Özdemir promised to honour his commitments in the interests of the state rather than his party.
- The Greens moved from absolute pacifism to pragmatic politics through experience in government.
- The proposition that participation in government could normalise the AfD is provocative but worth discussing.
- If people ask “What does this party actually do?” after three years in government, you have lost — as with the FDP.
- In modern party politics, if the leading figure does not work, the party becomes irrelevant.
Frequently asked questions
Why did Cem Özdemir win the Baden-Württemberg election?
Cem Özdemir won as a complete underdog because he persuaded voters as a person, while Manuel Hagel and the CDU made mistakes in the final stretch. The controversial timing of an incident involving a Bundestag member also put the CDU on the defensive shortly before the election. Özdemir benefited from promising to govern as a leader of the whole state, in its interests rather than those of his party.
Was Manuel Hagel’s defeat caused by a Green smear campaign?
That is unclear. The timing of the incident was “odd”, but the Bundestag member cannot be denied the right to speak about something that concerned her. Cem Özdemir insists he knew nothing about it. At the same time, Hagel made his own mistakes with certain videos and his communication in the final stretch.
Does Manuel Hagel still have a political future?
Yes. Hagel is only 37 and has a long political career ahead of him. The conversation anticipates that he will receive an important ministerial post giving him visibility and room to shape policy. In five years, if he runs again, he will still be a very young candidate.
Could governing normalise the AfD?
This is a provocative proposition discussed in the podcast. The comparison with the Greens shows that they were once absolute pacifists and became pragmatic politicians through experience in government. The question is whether the AfD could undergo a similar process. A central objection is that the AfD’s radical element is precisely what makes it strong: it is unclear why it would allow itself to be “smoothed down”.
What did the FDP get wrong?
The FDP failed to develop a clear identity in the traffic-light coalition. If people ask “What does this FDP actually do?” after three or four years in government, you have lost. The speakers see Christian Lindner as too self-centred and the wrong person to represent the party through personality. They also argue that the FDP lost its liberal core during the pandemic.
What will the Green–CDU coalition in Baden-Württemberg look like?
According to Reza Mehman, the coalition negotiations will be “very, very rough”. Cem Özdemir promised to fulfil his commitments in the interests of the state, not his party. The question is how many Green positions he can actually secure in a coalition with the CDU.
Why does personality matter so much in modern party politics?
If a party’s leading figure does not work, the party becomes irrelevant. The article cites the FDP with Lindner, the Left Party with Reichenbach, who found success through TikTok, and the Greens with Özdemir. Voters today often choose personalities rather than party manifestos.
Highlighted quotes
“There is Cem Özdemir as a person, and you have to say he won, because he will become minister-president. Only a few weeks ago, that was completely unthinkable.”
— Reza Mehman
“In a 100-metre race, you can’t have one person finish in ten seconds and another in 9.99, and then have the person who ran ten seconds say: somehow I deserve a place on the podium too.”
— Reza Mehman, on the CDU’s demand to share the term of office
“If, after three or four years in government, people wonder what the FDP actually does, then you’ve lost.”
— Podcast guest
“If the person leading the party doesn’t work, you’re irrelevant as a party.”
— Podcast guest
“I at least mourn the idea of the FDP. I think it’s essential for the political spectrum to include a politically liberal spirit.”
— Reza Mehman
“The coalition negotiations will certainly be very, very rough. We can assume that.”
— Podcast guest
The complete conversation
Election night: who actually won?
Karsten Kammholz:
Reza, looking back at Sunday evening and election night in Baden-Württemberg, what do you think? Who actually won? I know Cem Özdemir definitely won, but I also know the Greens didn’t win, and I know Hagel didn’t win. A very, very strange situation.
Reza Mehman:
Yes, fascinating. There is Cem Özdemir as a person, and you have to say he won, because he will become minister-president. Only a few weeks ago, that was completely unthinkable. It’s spectacular that he pulled it off. He was a complete underdog. Now we have to ask how that could happen, given that for over a year the CDU was so secure and so far ahead in the polls, with a huge lead. Then, apparently, they lost the election in the final few weeks. The big question is: was it a smear campaign, or did the CDU, and Manuel Hagel in particular, make some strategic mistakes in the final stretch? How do you see it?
A smear campaign or their own mistakes?
Karsten Kammholz:
Wow, I think a lot of things come together there. On the smear-campaign issue, the Greens insist they knew nothing — the Green leadership, that is. Personally, I did find the timing a little odd. On the other hand, there was an incident, and you can’t deny the woman, the Bundestag member who posted about it, the right to say: hey, I simply want to talk about this, it’s an important issue. Something happened to her, and of course she can raise it. You certainly can’t deny her that. The timing, whether anyone else was involved, whether Cem Özdemir… I heard they’d met two days beforehand, and Cem Özdemir insists he knew nothing about it. Naturally, I wonder what was going on.
The way people communicate nowadays surprises me too. Did you see that from Strobel, the CDU politician, who really complained about how Cem Özdemir responded to the CDU’s proposal — admittedly a slightly odd one — to split the term of office? When Özdemir heard that proposal at a press conference or something, he immediately said: that’s nonsense. Very human, probably down to exhaustion, that he replied so undiplomatically. But fundamentally he’s right. Even if the margin had been one vote rather than 27,000 or 28,000, the person with that one extra vote would still have the right to provide the minister-president. That’s democracy.
Campaigning and responsibility for the result
Reza Mehman:
In a 100-metre race, you can’t have one person finish in ten seconds and another in 9.99, and then have the person who ran ten seconds say: somehow I deserve a place on the podium too.
Hagel’s mistakes in the final stretch
Karsten Kammholz:
But it was close! Yes, exactly. That’s part of the CDU’s dilemma: they relied too heavily on the polls. I think there’s a lesson there for every party doing well in the polls: polls aren’t election results. Manuel Hagel felt that to some extent too. Perhaps he felt too secure, and then mistakes were made in the final stretch. Those videos that surfaced didn’t help either. That wasn’t good.
Reza Mehman:
Yes, I picked up on that a little too. He’s still young, only 37. When you’re young, you sometimes make mistakes you might avoid with more experience. But I think it’s a learning curve for him too. I think he still has a political future.
Hagel’s future in the CDU
Karsten Kammholz:
No. The man will get a powerful ministerial post with plenty of room to manoeuvre. If he wants to be elected in five years, he needs to make sure he can pursue enough policy independently for people across the state to notice it. That’s the dilemma of state politics: so much goes unseen. You have visibility in education policy and domestic security, meaning authority over the police. With other subjects, it becomes much harder. He needs an office where he can clearly demonstrate how he works as a politician.
Reza Mehman:
So you still see him having a role, keeping it and expanding it? The good thing is that he’s only 37. If he runs again in five years, he’ll still be a very, very young candidate.
Cem Özdemir: a leader for the state or a party loyalist?
Karsten Kammholz:
So how CDU-dominated will this next coalition really be, and how many Green positions will Cem Özdemir still be able to get through? That will be interesting.
Reza Mehman:
I give him credit for that too. I think he’s mentioned several times that he’ll now carry out his promises in the interests of the state, rather than his party. In other words, he won’t abandon those promises; he’ll try to implement exactly what he pledged.
A provocative proposition: normalising the AfD through governing
Reza Mehman:
With my next point, I’m entering dangerous waters. We’re heading towards a Green–CDU government. But I’m not an AfD fan. I regularly have lots of AfD supporters criticising my podcast in the comments, sometimes in heated discussions. Greetings to you all. I’m genuinely not an AfD fan. However, a thought occurred to me: I’m not sure whether there are certain similarities — not in substance, but at least in the process — with the Greens of the past. They were a completely different Green Party from what they are today. They were absolute pacifists. A completely different party. That still exists, but Cem Özdemir isn’t part of that.
What if the AfD were to govern on a small scale and get a reality check there? For example, a coalition in Baden-Württemberg between the CDU — I know they don’t want this — and the AfD, so the AfD might normalise somewhat and become a pragmatic party, moving away from its extremes. We mustn’t forget that the Greens were once very extreme too. What if it were exactly the right thing to see whether the AfD could go through the same process of development, so that eventually it became more normal and it wasn’t only the radical voices that were visible? What do you think?
Karsten Kammholz:
Questions about the normalisation theory
I’d have a few follow-up questions for you. What process are you imagining? A transition from a far-right party, a party that is far-right in parts, to a party of the centre? Why would the AfD let itself be smoothed down when its radical element is precisely what makes it strong? I can completely understand these thought experiments, but I can’t picture where that would end.
Reza Mehman:
Okay, but looking at society’s political spectrum, we currently have a lot of parties on the left, then the CDU covering the centre to some extent, and after that a long gap until the far right.
Karsten Kammholz:
What makes you think the CDU and AfD are actually close? They aren’t close. I don’t think they’re that close at all. By that logic, you’d also have to ask whether the Greens could govern with the AfD.
Reza Mehman:
I hadn’t thought about that, as you may have noticed. I’ll come back to it in a moment. But if we want to cover society’s political spectrum, do you agree with me that there’s a vacuum between the CDU and AfD?
Karsten Kammholz:
I see a vacuum between the CDU and AfD, and I also see an enormous vacuum between the CDU and SPD. Yes, I’m with you 100 per cent. But to fill that vacuum, some party has to move. Either the CDU moves further right or the AfD moves a little further left — although “left” probably isn’t the word to associate with it in this context.
The Greens: from pacifists to pragmatic politicians
Reza Mehman:
In my view, the reason the Greens have changed — from absolute pacifists to people who can’t send enough euros to Ukraine, for example, to invest in military equipment and so on, something that would have been unthinkable back then — has something to do with having spent a few years in government. They’ve governed and become more pragmatic politicians, seeing the real world as it is.
Karsten Kammholz:
You can’t really get a handle on the Green Party right now. You can get a handle on Cem Özdemir. But that’s precisely what the CDU always warned about: you may want to vote for Cem, he’s a good guy, he has charisma, he’d be a good leader of the state. But you don’t know the party underneath him; you don’t know what else is coming. There’s always that warning that the Greens will essentially destroy the economy and so forth. But that story doesn’t work in Baden-Württemberg, because after 15 years of Kretschmann, we know the state still exists despite having a Green minister-president.
The FDP: a lost liberal spirit
Reza Mehman:
I’ve never joined a party either. I found the FDP very interesting back then, especially because of its liberal views. At some point, I felt it was turning into a party for wannabe Porsche drivers. That was my impression. But I think another point where they lost themselves was during the pandemic, when they weren’t so liberal any more. To me, liberalism initially means something like: stay out of people’s affairs as much as possible, let people freely choose what they should do, what they want to do, and so on. I don’t know whether they lost that core a little. Unfortunately, I didn’t think much of Mr Lindner either, to be honest. It was too self-centred: me, me, me, everyone look at me. It wasn’t done well.
Karsten Kammholz:
He did try to make the party about a person, but I think he was the wrong person for it. And as finance minister, certainly. He completely failed to give the FDP a clear identity in the traffic-light coalition. If, after three or four years in government, people wonder what the FDP actually does, then you’ve lost.
Reza Mehman:
I at least mourn the idea of the FDP. I think it’s essential for the political spectrum to include a politically liberal spirit. We don’t have that right now.
Personality as a key factor
Karsten Kammholz:
Overall, we’ve been talking about the CDU for quite a while. But I find it really interesting to see what happens next. Do you think Manuel Hagel will still play a special role? Or do you think he’ll be pushed out now, like Armin Laschet was?
No. The man will get a powerful ministerial post with plenty of room to manoeuvre. If he wants to be elected in five years, he needs to make sure he can pursue enough policy independently for people across the state to notice it. That’s the dilemma of state politics: so much goes unseen.
The good thing is that he’s only 37. If he runs again in five years, he’ll still be a very, very young candidate. I think I asked this quite broadly earlier, but has your view of him changed, or do you still think roughly the same?
Reza Mehman:
As I said, I was somewhat taken aback by those videos. In moments like that, you see that he really is only 37. If he were older, perhaps he’d react differently in some situations, with more composure — especially in that classroom video.
Expectations for the state’s future politics
To conclude from my side, of course I hope the Greens get a few things right now. As someone from Baden-Württemberg, that matters a great deal to me. I know they have good people. I think Cem Özdemir himself really is a good one. You mentioned Daniel Bayaz earlier; I think highly of him. Both seem more like CDU politicians to me, but they belong to this party. I’m curious to see how it develops. The coalition negotiations will certainly be very, very rough. We can assume that.
Keywords
Tags: Cem Özdemir, Baden-Württemberg election victory, Manuel Hagel CDU, Green smear campaign, AfD normalisation, coalition negotiations, FDP liberal spirit, Kretschmann, personality in party politics, state election, Reza Mehman, Green pragmatism, CDU opposition, Baden-Württemberg minister-president
Names and terms
Reza Mehman, Cem Özdemir, Manuel Hagel, Winfried Kretschmann, Daniel Bayaz, Christian Lindner, Armin Laschet, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, Strobel (CDU), Baden-Württemberg, state election, minister-president, CDU, Greens, FDP, AfD, SPD, traffic-light coalition, smear campaign, Realpolitik, pacifism, coalition negotiations
Passage for quotation
Cem Özdemir’s election victory in Baden-Württemberg seemed completely unthinkable only weeks earlier.
As a complete underdog, he beat Manuel Hagel and the CDU, which had led the polls by a wide margin for over a year.
Reza Mehman and his guest analyse whether a smear campaign or the CDU’s own mistakes proved decisive.
They raise a provocative proposition: could participation in government normalise the AfD, just as the Greens once moved from pacifism to pragmatic politics?
One thing is clear: in modern party politics, if the leading figure does not work, the party becomes irrelevant.
Cem Özdemir will become minister-president of Baden-Württemberg, an outcome that seemed unthinkable only weeks earlier. Reza Mehman and his guest analyse a historic election night: was it a Green smear campaign or the CDU’s own mistakes? And what does it mean for Manuel Hagel, the FDP and the AfD?
Timestamps:
00:00 — Election night: who actually won?
02:30 — A smear campaign or the CDU’s own mistakes?
08:00 — Hagel’s mistakes in the final stretch
14:00 — Hagel’s future in the CDU
18:00 — Cem Özdemir: a leader for the state or a party loyalist?
22:00 — Normalising the AfD through governing
35:00 — The Greens: from pacifists to pragmatic politicians
42:00 — The FDP: a lost liberal spirit
52:00 — Personality as a key factor
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Find more conversations on my Reza Mehman podcast page.
[…] For the later discussion of election night, listen to and read Episode 172 on Cem Özdemir’s election victory. […]